NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 41 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +3.7, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • PredictIt betting odds: 57 to 46 in favor of Harris.

What is Happening?

By every conceivable measure, former President Donald Trump should be 10 points up, but he’s not 

• Click here to see Gallup’s pre-election report — the numbers are fascinating.
  • More from Gallup: “The political environment suggests the election is Trump’s and Republicans’ to lose. Nearly every indicator of the election context is favorable to the Republican Party, and those that aren’t are essentially tied rather than showing a Democratic advantage.” 
• If that isn’t enough consumer confidence just plummeted
  • Consumers are scared
• And crucial union voters in Michigan told MSNBC (much to their dismay) they don’t care about Jan. 6 — one voter called it Feb. 6.
  • Look at Alex Wagner’s face — reminds me of the old W.C. Fields rule of “Never work with children or animals.”

Yet, Trump is at best tied — as we say often, “never underestimate Republicans’ ability to screw things up.”

• His friends know it. As Politico reports, “Donald Trump was meeting privately in mid-September with one of his oldest friends, Steve Wynn, when the casino mogul and Republican mega-donor delivered the former president a blunt warning: You’re off message, and it isn’t helping.”
• The Harris campaign knows all this. What will THEY do to win? Exactly what they have been doing. 

Case in point: Interview or infomercial?

Stephanie Ruhle of MSNBC explained to Bret Stephens the logic for the lack of aggressive Harris coverage.

• Watch this — she actually tells the truth — and MSNBC holds her out as the serious journalist doing an interview with Harris 
• Colby Hall explains the hilarity of it all
  • Click here to read his opinion piece on it

Ground Invasion

The worst thing that can happen for America is that we become irrelevant or at least ignorable in world affairs…

• That happened slowly through the Obama and Biden administrations — now will happen very quickly if Israel defies the Biden administration and launches a ground invasion of Lebanon. 
• For his part, President Biden on “The View” today said, “There needs to be a two-state solution… There’s a desire to see change in the region.”
  • WHAT?!?! A year in and we are still stuck on this?! 
  • The Palestinians don’t want a two-state solution — they were given Gaza and turned it into a terror state. 
  • The only way to have peace in the Middle East is regime change in Iran…full stop.
    • Either President Biden doesn’t understand this, which is bad, or he can’t admit he was wrong to tie Israel’s hands after Oct. 7, which is worse! 
    • Axios reports, “‘We want to prevent a ground war,’ a senior U.S. official said, re-calibrating the Biden administration’s focus on what might still be achievable.”

The Associated Press reports Israel’s military is ready but hasn’t decided on the ground option against Hezbollah: “Addressing troops on the northern border, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi said the latest Israeli airstrikes were designed to ‘prepare the ground for your possible entry and to continue degrading Hezbollah.’”

• A war with Hezbollah looks very different than a Gaza war — politically it’s different too. Hezbollah isn’t Hamas fighting for the Palestinians. 
• Hezbollah is an Iranian terror army hellbent on destroying Israel and launching attacks from a different country. Now more than ever the moral clarity question isn’t a question 
• Either you are with the terrorists launching cruise missiles at Tel Aviv or you are with the Israelis — if you need help figuring it out here is a good video from Sky News Australia. 

The war that Biden worked a year to prevent will prove a far, far scarier point. 

Walter Russell Mead opines in The Wall Street Journal under the headline, “Biden’s Diplomatic Magical Thinking.” He continues, “His attempts to soothe the Middle East have produced the opposite effect.”

• All due respect to Mead, but he’s making far, far too small a point. Biden’s attempt to soothe the Middle East has emboldened President of China Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Iranian Ayatollah, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and the President of Venezuela Nicolas Maduro.

Team Obama then, Biden now, and Harris of the future love to talk about a “rules-based order”

• Well, someone has to enforce the rules — since the end of World War II, that was the United States.
• Since the end of the Cold War, the American president has held god-like power to enforce their will.
  • Obama started giving it away when he did not enforce his “red line” in Syria
  • Biden sped it up with the withdrawal from Afghanistan, his failure to stop or punish Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and his sucking up to Iran.

Let’s review Biden’s foreign policy position right now:

• He’s begging Iran to stop Hezbollah’s firing missiles into Israel 
• And Iran is actively trying to assassinate Trump 

How is that for a legacy? 

Does SNL Matter Anymore?

John McCain and Sarah Palin’s campaign ended with a Saturday Night Live skit, long before election day! 

• “I can see Russia from my house” defined Palin. 

This weekend SNL is live for the first time this election season — and they have LOTS of material to work with …

• Wouldn’t it be great if an “interview” with Harris had the answer to every question be “Look I grew up in a middle-class house.”

Watch tonight: SNL cast member turned free speech activist Rob Schneider joins us to discuss his new book, “You Can Do It: Speak Your Mind America.” 

• And we’ll discuss whether SNL has the courage to go after both candidates fairly! 

Cat Ladies vs. Weird

Both Sen. JD Vance, R-Ohio, and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz got the vice presidential nomination, at least in some part, for the same reason — they were good on cable TV.

• Walz’s “weird” comment about Trump and Vance on MSNBC catapulted him into the VP conversation 
• Vance’s constant defense of Trump and MAGA and Tucker Carlson hits on Fox back in the day brought him to the attention of Team Trump. 

Tuesday night they will square off in a VP debate that might actually matter…

• Especially because Walz all but refuses to do interviews
  • Go deeper: So far Walz hasn’t delivered on the white, working-class vote — Tuesday night is his chance to take the case to Vance.

Tonight, Julia Manchester and Sophia Cai will talk about how each man will frame the conversation to go after this year’s most important voters: Women. 

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.