State of play: 

• 22 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +2.9, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • Polymarket betting odds: 54 to 45.5 in favor of Trump – almost a 10-point spread.  

Programming alert: We’re on for two hours tonight (7 to 9 p.m. ET) and will bring you Donald Trump and Harris live from their rallies.

You Can’t Pick Your Own Facts

Three weeks out from the election, it’s pretty clear Trump is ahead, and if you don’t believe me…

• The leaks about Team Harris and Team Biden fighting
• The betting markets 
• Erick Erickson’s well-sourced piece on how each campaign is acting 
• Mark Halperin’s well-sourced reporting on the internals 
• Harris agreeing to a sit-down with Fox’s Bret Baier in Pennsylvania on Wednesday

Don’t miss: The meltdown from those like Martha Raddatz when interviewing JD Vance

Don’t miss x2: Hollywood actress Jennifer Garner saying, “Is there anything sexier than a man who is like, men for Kamala? Woo!”

• Pro tip: When you are “wooing,” you are losing. 

Trump’s lead reveals a far deeper truth about the race. 

Last night, I had dinner with a deeply conservative Republican willing to do anything to stop Trump, including voting for a progressive liberal. WOW. 

• He believes Trump is a threat to the American idea.
  • He cites Trump’s unforgivable actions on Jan. 6.
• Agree or disagree with his assessment, but you have to respect someone so focused they are willing to do anything.
  • What I am reading: This Atlantic article hones in on my buddy’s fears: “The reelection of Donald Trump would mark the end of George Washington’s vision for the presidency—and the United States” by Tom Nichols.

While Democrats say the same stuff about Trump ending the republic, they aren’t willing to do anything to beat Trump — in fact, they are doing very little.  

• 🗳️ Harris and Walz are running a far-left, not center-left, campaign 
• Despite saying America will end if Trump is elected, they are completely unwilling to moderate any of the far-left orthodoxy.

Beating Trump would be easy — just say or do some basic stuff, like:

• Picking Nikki Haley or Chris Sununu as VP
• Saying boys won’t play in girls sports
• Saying terrorist sympathizers on college campuses will face the same discipline had they been attacking Blacks rather than Jews 
• Saying no more drag shows in the U.S. military
  • It’s working for Team Trump – just watch their ad. 
• Saying we are going to close the border and deport any illegal immigrant arrested for a felony 
• Saying you won’t hear the word “equity” for the next four years because America will be a meritocracy or at least we will pause DEI as FEMA’s No. 1 priority. 
• Giving Elon Musk a cabinet job or letting him take over NASA.
  • Did you see the video of him catching a rocket as it returned to Earth?
  • Plus, it would blunt Musk’s effect as a Trump surrogate.
• Nominating Mitt Romney as secretary of state, Jamie Dimon as secretary of the treasury and Mike Gallagher as secretary of defense

See how easy that was?

• She would win all the swing states 
• Democrats might pick up seats in the Senate
• Republicans would have no idea what to do

Democrats really won’t do anything to win — it makes you wonder how much they really believe all the bad stuff they say about Trump. 

Bill O’Reilly writes this week in his column, “Winning is the Only Thing.”

• He is correct — there are only book deals for second place in politics. 

Speaking of books: New reporting from Christopher Rufo shows massive amounts of plagiarism in Harris’ 2009 book, “Smart on Crime.” 

As we told you a few weeks ago — there are lots of things that can go wrong for Harris — and few that can go right. 

One Number

You won’t believe this: “56% of Americans now favor deporting all undocumented immigrants, up 20 points from eight years ago,” according to a new ABC News poll.

• You have to see this: The New York Post front page today about Venezuelan gangs taking over Times Square. 
• Even Bill Clinton seemed to admit Laken Riley would be alive today if not for the Biden-Harris border policies.
  • ICYMI: If you didn’t click earlier — watch JD Vance make a fool of ABC’s Martha Raddatz for justifying Venezuela gangs taking over only a few apartment complexes. 

Watch tonight: Geraldo Rivera on why Democrats refuse to understand or acknowledge the anger of America. 

Fight of Our Time

Three years ago, the fight of our time required the removal of all statues, possibly renaming the Lincoln Memorial and ending Columbus Day. 

• Without such changes, we would always be a racist, oppressor country.
• See Vice President Harris in 2021 talking about Columbus Day.
• Tim Walz supported tearing down a Christopher Columbus statue in 2020 

Today, we celebrate Columbus Day yet again, and nobody seems to care about said microaggressions — the mobs tearing down statues are now too busy supporting Hamas and Hezbollah. 

Are we still a hopelessly racist country because we haven’t fully switched to Indigenous Peoples’ Day?

What Happened to Tim Walz?

The man who was supposed to fix Harris’ problem with (white) men appears to have too many problems of his own.

• The main problem: A hunting trip with all-new camo doesn’t earn you street cred. 

Fun watch 📺: MSNBC analyst Mara Gay tells the world what Democrats really think of young white men.

What is Trump Hiding About His Health

In a fun case of whataboutism, Trump’s health is now in focus.

• Evidently, both The New York Times and Kamala Harris find it interesting:
  • Harris said at a rally, “Here’s the thing. It makes you wonder. It makes you wonder. Why does Trump’s staff want him to hide away? One must question. One must question. Are they afraid that people will see he is too weak and unstable to lead America? Is that what’s going on?”
  • Watch her on Roland Martin’s show. 

Be fair: The woman who told us President Biden did cartwheels and calculus now wonders what someone running for president is hiding — and the Times story is rich with irony. 

That doesn’t make them wrong — Chris Cillizza explains why Trump’s health is now fair game. 

Reality: Who knows if Trump is hiding anything — but perception is reality.