NewsNation Chief Washington Anchor and On Balance host Leland Vittert was a foreign correspondent for four years in Jerusalem. He gives you an early look at tonight’s 7 p.m. ET show. Subscribe to War Notes here.  

State of play: 

• 42 days to the election 
• Decision Desk HQ average: Kamala Harris +3.9, as of around noon ET today. Click here to see the latest numbers.
  • PredictIt betting odds: 58 to 46 in favor of Harris.

There is a cognitive disconnect about where we are in the world right now …

• Former President Donald Trump rightly warns we are on the brink of World War III — and while Democrats won’t say that directly because it would implicate Biden, they certainly conceded we live in VERY dangerous times 
• Trump supporters rightly point out the world looked A LOT safer in September of 2020 than it does now…
  • Yes, we had COVID-19
  • But…
    • We didn’t have a war in Ukraine
    • We didn’t have a war in the Middle East that could explode any day
    • We didn’t have an American presidency exposed on the world stage as impotent to enforce its worldview
    • We didn’t have a strong China-Russia alliance
    • We didn’t have Chinese ships ramming our allies on the high seas 
• By every available measure, the world is a more dangerous place since Biden took office. 
• Yet hundreds of former generals and national security folks, even prominent Republicans like Dick Cheney, now endorse Harris. Among the national security folks are former Secretary of Defense William Cohen, retired Rear Admiral Michael E. Smith and former Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel (a Republican who served under former President Obama)
• Trump supporters explain this by saying Democrats have become the party of defense contractors and the blob with its vested interest in prolonging the war in Ukraine.
  • Note who President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine is campaigning with
    • Thought bubble: I am old enough to remember when asking Ukraine’s president for political help ended up with an impeachment. 

Watch tonight: Hugh Hewitt, America’s premier conservative radio host, will help explain the disconnect between Trump’s successful national security policy and his pariah-like status among the American national security blob.  

A few notes about the Hezbollah-Israel conflict:

• Israel planned since the 2006 war for this moment 
• The pagers and radios are just the beginning of its asymmetric capabilities 
• Unlike Gaza, where the population overwhelmingly supports Hamas, the Lebanese overwhelmingly hate Hezbollah
• Israel’s visibility into Lebanon is a war planner’s dream
• Israel’s pager and radio attacks crippled the group to shape the battlefield for an air campaign against the over 100,000 missiles and rockets in Hezbollah’s arsenal 
• A loss or humiliating cease-fire from Hezbollah would really prove the ayatollah has no clothes 
• For all the criticism by Team Biden of the Israelis, more than anything, it comes from embarrassment 
• Right now, Israel is proving Team Biden’s worldview wrong and replacing the United States as the premier force for good (against the evil of Iran) in the Middle East. 
• Deeply dishonest: Watching Andrea Mitchell’s interview with the Iranian VP shows you the insane moral equivalency much of the American media lives in

Revert to the Mean

Much of polling is statistics, and like my golf game after a two-over on the front nine, the polling on the 2024 election is reverting to the mean (unlike in my golf game), which is a good thing for Trump. 

• Our buddy Mark Halperin is out with some very very good reporting on the private polls that shows the race back to where it started before the June Biden-Trump debate. 

The battleground polling that showed Harris with an explosive early start has now flipped with Trump up and momentum on his side. 

Which brings us to the “bro votes.”

• Young men break for Trump, but young women break more for Harris
  • Our partners at The Hill have a great look at the newest Harvard poll
• And Chris Cillizza breaks down the Taylor Swift component

Go deeper: “Duel of TikTok boys” — MAGA vs. liberal

Perhaps part of Harris’ appeal, particularly among America’s youth, is her Houdini move of turning Trump into the incumbent. NBC reports, “Newly popular Harris builds momentum, challenging Trump for the mantle of change.”

Yet the young men are more religious. Last night, Trump talked about the need for Christians and gun owners to vote – is this the new youth of America? 

Watch tonight: Chris Hahn on Democrats winning the “bro vote” — and do “bros” even vote? 

A video you won’t see: Trump buying a struggling mom groceries during a photo-op in Pennsylvania. 

Plus, young Americans keep telling us immigration is a top issue. 

Mass deportations are becoming the “build a wall” issue of 2024 … Trump is picking up on real anger.

• Like in 2016, there is a big danger of Democrats dismissing it — and no, going to the border won’t help.
• When your community is overtaken by Venezuelan gangs, as The New York Times reported, deportations don’t sound so bad. 
• We’ll have Geraldo Rivera on that discussion tonight. 

Will Ozempic Break the Pharma Cabal?

Cheap Ozempic — why don’t any politicians run on that platform? 

• The CEO behind Ozempic came before Congress to answer the age-old pharma question.
  • Why does a drug that costs $100 in Canada cost $1,000 in the United States? 

From Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt.:

• “What these doctors are telling us is if the price of Ozempic and Wegovy is not reduced, many of their patients who have diabetes and obesity, especially lower-income Americans, often minority Americans, will not be able to afford these drugs. … Some of these patients will unnecessarily die, and others will suffer a significant decline in their quality of life.”
• He has a point: Ozempic is working; obesity is down. 

Of course, it’s not just adults — it’s kids too, and severe obesity is on the rise. 

• Obesity continues to bankrupt America. 

Money Talks

Remember the NFL kicker who became famous for talking about traditional gender roles? The Left tried to cancel him.

• Harrison Butker melted down the media by saying at the commencement address for a Catholic college, “Some of you may go on to lead successful careers in the world, but I would venture to guess that the majority of you are most excited about your marriage and the children you will bring into this world. I can tell you that my beautiful wife Isabelle would be the first to say that her life truly started when she started living her vocation as a wife and as a mother.”
• His jersey sales now put him 11th in the NFL, ahead of fellow Chief and boyfriend of Taylor Swift, Travis Kelce. 

Fun note: Right after the graduation, the women’s version of Harrison Butker’s personalized gear sold the most!

Tune into “On Balance with Leland Vittert” weeknights at 7/6C on NewsNation. Find your channel here. 

The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.