Biden should be Democratic nominee: Esteemed election forecaster
- Prof. Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted 9 of last 10 elections
- Using his '13 keys' to the White House, he favors Biden's odds
- Said to disregard polls, as Biden will win if he's on the ballot
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(NewsNation) — President Joe Biden is the Democrats’ best choice and will win reelection come November, prominent presidential election forecaster Allan Lichtman said on NewsNation’s “Cuomo.”
Lichtman, a highly regarded history professor at American University who boasts a 90% accuracy record in predicting presidential election outcomes, said the incumbent candidate checks off more of his “keys” than anyone else.
Developed in 1981 with mathematician Vladimir Keilis-Borok, Lichtman’s formula of 13 keys to the White House has helped him make overwhelmingly accurate predictions ever since.
Despite Democratic calls for Biden to step down and back-and-forth polling showing him on the outs, Lichtman stands firm in his assessment.
“Polls are snapshots, not predictors,” Lichtman said. “They are abused as predictors.”
“You have the same pundits now, based on one debate, rather than three and a half years of presidency, writing off Joe Biden,” Lichtman added.
Lichtman’s 13 keys to the White House
- Party Mandate
- Party Contest
- Incumbency
- 3rd Party
- Short-term Economy
- Long-term Economy
- Policy Change
- Social Unrest
- Scandal
- Foreign Policy
- Incumbent Charisma
- Challenger Charisma
NewsNation’s Liz Jassin contributed to this report.
