Decision Desk ‘24 Blake Burman’s Campaign View: Two Up, One to Go

Updated: Jan 22, 2024 / 12:54 PM CST

NASHUA, NEW HAMPSHIRE – JANUARY 19: Republican presidential candidate, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis speaks to supporters during a campaign rally at the Courtyard by Marriott Nashua on January 19, 2024 in Nashua, New Hampshire. DeSantis continues campaigning in New Hampshire ahead of that state’s primary on January 23. (Photo by Brandon Bell/Getty Images)

NewsNation Chief Washington Correspondent and The Hill on NewsNation moderator Blake Burman shares his political reporting and campaign viewpoints leading into the 2024 election.

We are just hours away until all six registered voters in the town of Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, will cast their ballots at midnight to kick off the first-in-the-nation primary. Six, by the way, is a number we don’t want you to forget! Starting tonight, “The Hill on NewsNation” moves to 6p ET. Set/change your DVRs if need be!

But here’s another number to consider: Two. That’s how many national polls since 2016 have showed someone other than Donald Trump leading the Republican field. One was an outlier, and the other was within the margin of error.

Question to consider: if Trump has dominated all Republican presidential hopefuls for nearly 3,000 days, do you think something seismic can happen in the next 30 hours or 30 days to change that?

Trump vs. Haley in New Hampshire

The final two in the Republican field are set, with Ron DeSantis’ Sunday announcement that he’s out and supporting Trump. While this is, of course, the Republican race for the White House, focusing on just Republicans in New Hampshire can be a mistake. Before DeSantis’ departure, NewsNation Political Editor Chris Stirewalt broke down how independents, who are allowed to vote in the New Hampshire primary, can potentially shape tomorrow night’s results in the Granite State.

As Chris notes, exit polling in the 2000 primary showed how 61% of independents went for John McCain, while only 19% went for George W. Bush. McCain ended up beating Bush in New Hampshire by roughly 43,000 votes and 18%.

Question to consider: If independents are able to pull Haley across the finish line tomorrow night, could the potential momentum sway enough Republicans in future “closed” primaries (ones where only Republicans can vote) to where it matters?

The South Carolina Crew

If tomorrow night’s results show viability for Haley going forward, the attention would then shift to South Carolina, Haley’s home state and where she served as Governor. However, Haley suffered a bit of a politically embarrasing moment when Senator Tim Scott, who was appointed to that position by then-Governor Haley, announced his support of Trump. It has led to questions about whether or not Scott could be under consideration to potentially be Trump’s future nominee for Vice President. Trump’s former White House chief of staff and NewsNation poliitcal contributor Mick Mulvaney (who, of course, is from South Carolina), now wonders if that’s a real possibility.

“It does raise the specter of this discussion we’ve had here before about whether or not Tim is on a VIP list. I used to think that there was no chance that he would be. Today I’m scratching my head thinking maybe I’ve been wrong about that one. But Tim was very candid. He said, ‘Look, he likes working with Donald Trump. He’s looking forward to him being president again,’” Mulvaney says, as he also shared what Senator Scott relayed to him.

Question to consider: if Trump wins big in New Hampshire and Haley were to end her campaign, when do you think Trump should announce his VP pick? Trump has suggested recently that he has his mind made up on who his running mate could be.

All Good?

Off the trail, here’s something else to watch: How safe is House Speaker Mike Johnson’s job? Nearly half of all House Republicans voted against the recent short-term spending deal Johnson negotiated. Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., the head of the House Freedom Caucus, told us that the Speaker shouldn’t necessarily assume that the conservative group will back certain bills if larger legislation doesn’t tackle spending and the border. The White House and a bipartisan group of senators are negotiating a border package now, while government funding runs out in early March.

Question to consider: Good had been supporting DeSantis, but announced last night he is back on Team Trump. Does that change the dynamics for “MAGA Mike Johnson,” as Trump once called him, in any way?

A reminder: We will see you tonight, and every night going forward, on NewsNation at 6p ET. For those of you who listen to us on Sirius XM Channel 124, we are bumped up an hour to 7p ET.

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The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily of NewsNation.