The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and other pro-Israel groups are ramping up their efforts to target incumbent progressive lawmakers in their primaries as the fallout surrounding the Israel-Hamas war seeps further into U.S. politics.

AIPAC, the most influential pro-Israel group, has said it plans to spend $100 million to target progressive candidates, while the Democratic Majority for Israel (DMFI) PAC and the Jewish Democratic Council of America have set their sights on progressive Reps. Jamaal Bowman (D-N.Y.) and Cori Bush (D-Mo.). 

The effort underscores the degree to which the Israel-Hamas war will factor into Democratic primaries and help shape the party’s next wave of incoming lawmakers.

“We’re not interested in defeating people who are progressive,” said Mark Mellman, a Democratic pollster and president and CEO of DMFI. “We’re not interested in defeating people who are pro-Palestinian, we’re interested in defeating people who are anti-Israel and I think it’s fair to say that Bowman, Bush, and some of these other members are decidedly anti-Israel.” 

In New York’s 16th Congressional District’s Democratic primary, Bowman is working to fight off a challenge from Westchester County Executive George Latimer, while in Missouri’s 1st Congressional District, Bush faces a challenge from St. Louis Prosecuting Attorney Wesley Bell. 

Publicly available polling from the primary races paints a potentially troubling scenario for Bowman and Bush. One survey, conducted in early February by the Republican firm Remington Research, showed Bush trailing Bell by 22 points. Another survey, conducted by Mellman earlier this month, showed Latimer leading Bowman 56 percent to 35 percent. Bowman’s campaign called the poll “junk” in a comment to the New York Post. 

“It’s clear to us based on the polling that we’ve done that people like Cori Bush and Jamaal Bowman are out of sync with the voters in their district,” Mellman said. “We found that Democratic primary voters in these districts approve of the job that President Biden is doing handling this war. We found that they overwhelmingly want to support Israel and not Hamas in this conflict.”

Mellman did note that defeating Bush and Bowman would not be easy due to their status as incumbent lawmakers. 

“I think they can be [defeated]. Will they be? That’s a different story. It will be difficult to unseat them, there’s no question about it,” he said. 

In addition to facing a pro-Israel primary challenger, Bowman also lost the endorsement of the progressive Jewish group J Street earlier this year. The group noted in January that it was “pleased” to work with Bowman for four years, but it said recent months “highlighted significant differences between us in framing and approach.” 

However, J Street, which has been critical of Israel’s wartime conduct, has warned that the involvement of groups like AIPAC in Democratic primaries threatens to divide the party ahead of November. 

“It’s really disappointing to see groups like United Democracy Project funneling millions and millions of Republican billionaire dollars into Democratic primaries,” said Tali deGroot, J Street’s national political director, referring to the independent expenditure arm of AIPAC. 

“They’re doing the same thing that Republicans are doing in the House, which is using the war as a political football and dividing the Democratic Party over it at a moment when the future of our democracy is on the line,” she continued. 

DeGroot pointed to California state Sen. Dave Min’s (D), who is running for Rep. Katie Porter’s (D-Calif.) seat in the 47th Congressional District. While Min advanced to the general election, he was on the receiving end of $4.5 million worth of attacks from AIPAC during the primary. Min had been critical of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu but did not call for a permanent cease-fire. 

“No matter who won that primary, they were going to be in a much weaker position heading into the general because of how much mudslinging happened in the primary, and that’s a critical seat for Democrats,” deGroot said.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the seat as “lean Democratic.” 

The United Democracy Project has also leaned into the Democratic primary in Maryland’s 3rd Congressional District, where former Capitol Police Officer Harry Dunn is running. The group is supporting Dunn’s primary opponent, Democratic state Sen. Sarah Elfreth, with a $600,000 ad buy but has said it is not concerned about Dunn’s stance on the Israel-Gaza war. 

“They’re trying to knock off Harry Dunn,” said Len Foxwell, a Maryland-based Democratic strategist. “The bigger question that people are wondering is how will this affect Senator Elfreth, who is the beneficiary of the AIPAC dark money that’s coming to the 3rd District.” 

AIPAC has pushed back on the accusation that it is trying to sow discord among Democrats by inserting itself into primaries, telling The Hill it is “the largest PAC contributor to Democratic candidates.”

“Our political action committee supports the Democratic leadership and nearly half of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, Black Caucus and Hispanic Caucus,” the group said in a statement. “In addition, our affiliated super Pac supported a number of Democratic progressive candidates in the last election cycle, who defeated anti-Israel candidates in their primary, won their general election, and are currently serving in Congress. We believe that it is entirely consistent with progressive values to stand with the Jewish state.” 

Pro-Palestinian progressives claim that pro-Israel groups like AIPAC are working to silence any criticism against Israel within the Democratic Party with the threat of primary challengers. 

“As long as you are even lightly critical of the Israeli government or the Israeli military, you are a target,” said Usamah Andrabi, a spokesperson for Justice Dems who is also a leading member of the Reject AIPAC coalition, which was launched last month by a partnership of progressive groups to push back on AIPAC’s political influence. 

“We’ve heard that from members of Congress. Member-to-member conversations often, I’ve heard, have been, ‘We want to speak out against the atrocities that are happening but we’re scared of an AIPAC primary,’” he said.

“This is not a war between progressives and the far-right Israel lobby,” Andrabi added. “This is a battle for our democracy and for the whole of the Democratic Party.”

Despite the obvious internal disagreements over Israel between many Democrats, House Democratic leadership put on a show of unity last month in endorsing Bowman. The endorsement illustrated the fine line Democrats are walking as the world continues to watch the war in Gaza. 

“Jamaal Bowman was endorsed by the House leadership for reelection for a reason,” said Hank Sheinkopf, a New York-based Democratic strategist. “They can’t afford to be in a position where they single out a member and allow it to appear that any interest group of any kind is influencing their decisions. And Biden faces a similar set of circumstances.”