Republicans fear growing 2024 field clears path for Trump

Republicans are anxious that the ever-growing 2024 primary field will only help former President Trump win the nomination next year.

Former Rep. Will Hurd (R-Texas) on Thursday became the latest Republican to launch a bid for the White House, following Miami Mayor Francis Suarez’s jump into the race last week. On Thursday, The New York Times reported Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.) was also weighing his own presidential bid, though he has publicly denied this.

But while a cohort of the Republican Party is open to non-Trump alternatives in 2024, members of the GOP fear the burgeoning field could siphon off votes from his more competitive opponents, especially Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.

“The more candidates who enter the GOP presidential fray, the better positioned Donald Trump is to win the nomination because it dilutes the non-Trump vote,” said Republican strategist Ford O’Connell.

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There are now roughly 12 major contenders for the GOP nomination to take on President Biden, seen as the de facto Democratic presidential nominee. National and local polling has shown Trump leading the pack, with DeSantis largely in second place.

Though the GOP field has started to crystallize ahead of the first GOP debate in August, the recent additions — North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum also launched a long-shot bid earlier this month — are heightening concerns among those opposed to Trump.

“Every person that enters this race who isn’t named Donald Trump is drawing from a limited pool of Republican voters, and it divides the field further and further and further,” said Rick Wilson, co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project. “It makes it harder and harder for a DeSantis or a [Chris] Christie or a Nikki [Haley] or anyone else to credibly put together enough hard numbers in the field in these various early states to win.”

Trump’s allies know it, too, and they’ve been delighted by the number of new candidates steadily joining the race. Specifically, they’ve seen it as an opportunity to target DeSantis, whom they view as Trump’s most formidable challenger.

“Let’s be honest, Never-Trumper Will Hurd wouldn’t even consider getting in this race if Ron DeSantis’ campaign wasn’t in total free fall. Hurd’s entry means nothing for President Trump’s standing, but means everything for Ron DeSantis, further underscoring how far Ron’s star has fallen,” said Karoline Leavitt, spokeswoman for Make America Great Again Inc., the super PAC that’s backing Trump.

Former Texas Rep. Will Hurd speaks during the Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition Spring Kick-Off April 22 in Clive, Iowa. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

Make America Great Again Inc. has issued a statement after each new candidate has entered. Nearly all of them have made a point to attack DeSantis, arguing that each contender is joining the field because the Florida governor has failed to consolidate support.

Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Trump’s campaign, said Hurd’s entry into the race was evidence that DeSantis “has failed to seal the deal” with voters seeking to move past Trump.

“Nobody thinks he’ll ultimately be President Trump’s main challenger,” Miller said.

Those backing Trump largely believe the growing field will fragment the vote among challengers who do not have a clear, devoted base. DeSantis, who has been the favorite among a certain brand of conservative Republicans who want the party to move on from the former president, could be the biggest casualty.

As one Trump ally put it: “The more the merrier.”

But DeSantis is batting away those concerns. Asked his opinion on the matter during his visit in North Augusta, S.C., on Thursday, DeSantis replied: “Not if you guys do your part. The sky’s the limit for us. I mean, we can do it.”

“All I can tell you is this: People can do what they want. The only reason I’m running is to win and deliver on these promises. That’s the only reason,” he added.

Members of the GOP also acknowledge there are personal reasons, beyond becoming president, as to why some candidates would launch bids now.

“There is almost no downside to running for president these days, particularly when you are an unknown, because it becomes a branding exercise for a future office, for a future job, etc.,” O’Connell said.

Some Republicans also believe that there’s no harm in running while it’s still early in the cycle, believing that the field will consolidate quickly as candidates fight for funding from donors and assess their performances in the early presidential primary states.

“My expectation is that the field is going to narrow very, very quickly,” said Matt Mackowiak, chairman of the Travis County GOP, who has also previously advised Hurd. “There’s going to be enormous pressure on anyone that finishes fifth or worse in Iowa or New Hampshire to get out quickly. I mean, those people are not gonna be able to raise 100 bucks.”

“I do worry if nine or 10 people were to stay in past through, say, Super Tuesday, then it almost guarantees Trump the nomination because he’s got a solid 25 to 30 percent of the primary electorate as of now that are really rock solid behind him,” he added.

The first true test for candidates will come right before the party’s first debate in Milwaukee in August. Contenders will need to meet several qualifications to make the stage, such as registering at least 1 percent in three national polls, or a mix of national and early state polling, and have 40,000 unique donors “with at least 200 unique donors per state or territory in 20+ states and/or territories,” according to the Republican National Committee.

GOP strategist Alice Stewart, who’s worked on several presidential campaigns, including for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, said presidential contenders have every right to launch their campaign and argued “trying to shove someone out the door at this stage of the game isn’t helpful to the process because we don’t know what can happen.”

Still, many of the candidates face a steep climb.

“I feel like there’s a lot of candidates that are, again, excellent resumes and great experience and optimistic vision. But at the end of the day, some appear to be driven by consultants who are going to be cashing in on candidates that have a … difficult road ahead,” Stewart said.

Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson (R), a staunch Trump critic who launched his long-shot presidential campaign in April, seemed to acknowledge some of those challenges in an interview Thursday with Fox News. Asked if the growing number of GOP primary candidates was dividing the anti-Trump vote, he answered, “Probably.”

“We’ve got to go through this period of self-evaluation,” Hutchinson said, “that if our message doesn’t resonate and if were stepping on each other’s toes, then we need to say who can be the best leader and we need to make sure that we reduce those numbers … as we get closer to 2024.”