(NEXSTAR) — Now that the 2024 presidential election has narrowed to an expected rematch between incumbent Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump, pollsters are closely monitoring the potential perils for Mr. Trump if he’s convicted in one of four pending criminal trials.
To this point, conventional wisdom and most polling results have pointed to dire outcomes for Trump if convicted, but new polling from Emerson College and The Hill suggests a more complex picture in the battleground states that will be key to winning the Electoral College.
Emerson surveyed 1,000 registered voters from each of the states most likely to swing the election. Voters from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin were weighted by gender, age, race/ethnicity, education and voter turnout data to create a sampling of the expected electorate.
From those samples, the largest group of voters in each state said a conviction in his New York hush money trial would have no impact on the likelihood of supporting Mr. Trump for president in 2024, with a majority of Republicans saying it would make them more likely to vote for him. Fifteen percent of Republican voters in Pennsylvania said a guilty ruling would make them less likely to support Trump, followed by 13% in Arizona, 11% in Wisconsin, 10% in Michigan and 9% in Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina.
Results among independent voters were less consistent. The poll found a conviction would be potentially damaging among independents in four of seven key swing states:
- Georgia: 26% more likely, 32% less likely, 42% no impact
- Michigan: 26% more likely, 30% less likely, 45% no impact
- Nevada: 25% more likely, 32% less likely, 43% no impact
- Wisconsin: 24% more likely, 30% less likely, 47% no impact
But independents in three other toss-up states responded differently, with nearly a third of independent voters in each state saying they would be more likely to send the former president back to the White House if convicted in New York.
- Pennsylvania: 31% more likely, 24% less likely, 45% no impact
- Arizona: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
- North Carolina: 32% more likely, 25% less likely, 43% no impact
“The conventional wisdom would be, hey if a president or a person is convicted, that would hurt them, but [in] Trump’s case, the polls suggest it might help him. He might get a boost out of that,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, told Nexstar. “Which suggests that either way this trial goes, Trump might find a victory in there. If he’s found innocent then the witch hunt argument is made. If he is found guilty, it looks like some of these voters are going to rally around the former president.”
Overall, voters favored the leading Republican candidate over Biden in Arizona (48% to 44%), Georgia (47% to 44%), Michigan (45% to 44%), Nevada (45% to 44%), North Carolina (47% to 42%), Pennsylvania (47% to 45%) and Wisconsin (47% to 45%).
The poll, which has a margin of error of +/- 3%, did, however, find that Biden gained ground among some undecided voters since previous polling samples were done earlier this year.
The poll also asked swing state voters of their opinion on his NYC criminal trial — specifically, whether it was appropriate to hold the former president accountable, or if it felt like more of a “witch hunt,” as Trump has called it.
In every swing state, more polled voters found the trial to be appropriate, with margins of 4% in Arizona, 7% in Georgia, 7% in Michigan, 11% in Nevada, 1% in North Carolina, 7% in Pennsylvania and 6% in Wisconsin.
