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What does the Ohio abortion win mean for 2024?

  • The measure protects access to reproductive care including abortions
  • The win could be good new for Democrats ahead of 2024
  • Republicans will have to balance appealing to their base and centrists

People gather in the parking lot of the Hamilton County Board of Elections as people arrive for early in-person voting in Cincinnati, Thursday, Nov. 2, 2023. They urge a vote for or against the measure known as Issue 1. Issue 1 is the only abortion question on any state ballot this year. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)

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(NewsNation) — Voters in Ohio turned out Tuesday to enshrine access to abortion and other reproductive health care in the state’s constitution and the results could serve as a bellwether for 2024.

Issue 1 amended the state constitution to include the right to access reproductive healthcare including, but not limited to, abortion. Access to care like fertility treatments or birth control are also protected by the amendment.

While the amendment does allow the state to restrict the procedure after the point of viability, generally agreed to occur around 24 weeks of pregnancy, it also specifies there must be exceptions if the life or health of the mother is at risk.

The campaigning and results for the amendment in Ohio is a precursor to similar ballot measures expected to be put to a vote in several states next year. That includes Arizona and Nevada, which play pivotal roles in the White House race.

As a swing state, Ohio provides a peek into how voters are feeling ahead of the upcoming presidential election, currently forecast to be a rematch between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump.

Ohio’s not the only state to have passed laws protecting abortion — though it is the only state where the issue was on the ballot this year — but unlike some other states, such as California and Vermont, Ohio is not a reliably Democrat stronghold. Ohio voters cast their ballots in Trump for in both 2016 and 2020, but even counties that supported the former president turned out in support of the amendment, a potential indicator of how voters are feeling in a post-Roe world.

Abortion proved to be a driver in getting Democratic voters out in the 2022 midterm election, helping the party turn a predicted red wave into a split Congress, with Republicans holding a narrow majority in the House of Representatives.

The results in Ohio suggest abortion continues to be an issue that gets people to the polls, which could be good news for Democrats. The party has already made it clear abortion access will continue to be a main issue in campaigns in 2024.

The news may be less good for Republicans, who are going to have walk the tightrope of appealing to a conservative base that considers anti-abortion laws a key issue and getting enough traction in the general election, where they’ll need to appeal to the roughly two-thirds of Americans who think abortion should be legal in the early stages of pregnancy.

But while Democrats may be feeling a sense of hope that abortion can bring voters to the polls, the party still faces hurdles. Polling shows Biden falling behind Trump in a hypothetical 2020 rematch. It’s also not clear how much voters will prioritize abortion when there are many more issues to consider when it comes to deciding who will control the White House for the next four years.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.

Abortion

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