AP Decision Notes: What to expect in New Jersey’s special congressional election

WASHINGTON (AP) — Voters in New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District will choose a successor on Wednesday to the late Democratic U.S. Rep. Donald Payne Jr., who died in April after more than 11 years in office.

Running to replace him are Democrat LaMonica McIver, president of the Newark City Council, Republican Carmen Bucco, a small business owner, and two minor-party candidates. McIver won a crowded and at times contentious 11-way primary on July 16, while Bucco was unopposed for the Republican nomination.

The winner will serve out the remaining 15 weeks of Payne’s unexpired term. Payne posthumously won the Democratic nomination for a seventh full term in the June 4 state primary, and New Jersey party officials named McIver to replace him on the general election ballot once she prevailed in the special primary. Bucco will be on the November ballot as the Republican nominee, along with four minor-party candidates who are not running in the special election.

Democrats have a considerable electoral advantage in the 10th District. President Joe Biden and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton both carried the district in the 2020 and 2016 presidential races with more than 80% of the vote.

The state has had two other vacant seats to contend with in recent weeks. Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Menendez resigned Aug. 20 following his conviction on federal bribery charges. Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy appointed his former chief of staff George Helmy to fill the seat until voters elect a replacement in November. In the 9th Congressional District, Democratic U.S. Rep. Bill Pascrell died Aug. 21, and party officials in the district tapped state Sen. Nellie Pou to replace him on the November ballot.

As for why the special election to replace Payne is being held on a Wednesday, instead of the usual Tuesday, the answer lies deep within the fine print of New Jersey’s election law. When a U.S. House seat becomes vacant in New Jersey, the governor may order a special election to fill the seat or allow it to be filled at the next statewide general election.

If the governor orders a special election, the special primary must be held within 70 to 76 days of the date the governor issued the order. The special general election must be held between 64 and 70 days of the special primary. Payne died on April 24, and Murphy issued his special election order nine days later on May 3. He set the special primary for July 16, which was the only Tuesday that fell within the date range allowed by law. For the special general election, Murphy chose the earliest possible day allowed by law: 64 days after the special primary, or Sept. 18, which happens to be a Wednesday. New Jersey also held a Wednesday election in 2013 to replace the late U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg.

Here’s a look at what to expect on election night:

Special election day

The special election in New Jersey’s 10th Congressional District will be held Wednesday. Polls close at 8 p.m. ET.

What’s on the ballot

The Associated Press will provide vote results and declare a winner in the special congressional election. The candidates are McIver, Bucco and third-party candidates Russell Jenkins and Rayfield Morton.

Who gets to vote

Any voter registered in 10th Congressional District may participate in the special election.

Decision notes

Special elections tend to be relatively low-turnout events, especially without other higher-profile races on the ballot to attract voters.

The 10th Congressional District includes parts of three counties just west of New York City: Essex (home to Newark), Hudson (home to Jersey City) and Union. Essex is the dominant player in 10th District elections, making up 57% of the districtwide population, compared with about 24% for Union and 19% for Hudson.

In the 2022 general election, Payne won the district with about 78% of the vote. The Republican nominee, David Pinckney, received 20% of the vote. Payne did best in Essex County, with 85% of the vote, and the worst in Union County, where he received 66% of the vote to Pinckney’s 32%.

The first indications that McIver is winning districtwide on a level consistent with the overwhelming margins the incumbent party has enjoyed in other contests in the district may be sufficient to determine winner. Similarly, if initial results show Bucco significantly outperforming past Republican candidates in the district contests, a race call may be delayed until more vote results are available.

The AP does not make projections and will declare a winner only when it’s determined there is no scenario that would allow the trailing candidates to close the gap. If a race has not been called, the AP will continue to cover any newsworthy developments, such as candidate concessions or declarations of victory. In doing so, the AP will make clear that it has not yet declared a winner and explain why.

While New Jersey does not have automatic recounts, candidates and voters may request and pay for them, with the cost refunded if the outcome changes. The AP may declare a winner in a race that is eligible for a recount if it can determine the lead is too large for a recount or legal challenge to change the outcome.

What do turnout and advance vote look like?

As of Aug. 1, there were nearly 504,000 voters registered in the 10th District, about 54% Democrats, 9% Republicans and 36% independents not affiliated with any party.

In the 2022 general election, turnout in the district was about 27% of registered voters, with about 21% of voters casting their ballots before election day. Turnout in the July 16 special Democratic primary was about 6% of registered voters.

As of Wednesday, nearly 14,000 ballots had been cast before election day, about 82% from Democrats, 9% from Republicans and 9% from independents not affiliated with any party.

How long does vote-counting usually take?

In the July 16 special primary election, the AP first reported results at 8:04 p.m. ET, or four minutes after polls closed. The election night tabulation ended at 10:36 p.m. ET with about 86% of total votes counted.