The Cook Political Report on Tuesday shifted the Wisconsin Senate race from “lean Democrat” to “toss up,” handing Republican Eric Hovde a boost as he tries to unseat Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.).

Baldwin, the two-term incumbent, has led throughout the campaign but has hit choppy waters as the race hits the final month. A recent poll by the Cook Political Report showed Baldwin leading by 2 points (49 to 47 percent), with similar internal polls on both sides of the aisle helping them cement the ratings change.

A polling average from The Hill and DDHQ, meanwhile, has Baldwin leading by 4.3 percent.

“This tightening, as Hovde has further consolidated Republicans behind him and brought independents over to his side, is largely predictable,” Cook’s Jessica Taylor wrote, pointing to Wisconsin’s status as a preeminent swing state. 

President Biden won the state in 2020 by 20,000 votes and less than a percentage point. Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) won reelection in 2022 by a single percentage point. 

This is, by far, Baldwin’s toughest reelection battle. She skated to a second term in 2018, but Republicans are sensing an opportunity. 

The Senate Leadership Fund, a top super PAC run by advisers to Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), recently made a $17 million ad buy in the state. Baldwin and Democrats have outspent Hovde and Republicans since he won the mid-August primary by roughly $10 million. 

A win by Hovde would likely portend a strong election night for Republicans and possibly a Senate majority of at least 53 seats. Republican Tim Sheehy is favored to defeat Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana, while the race between Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) and Republican Bernie Moreno in Ohio is considered a toss-up.