(NewsNation) — Chicagoans are heading to the polls to cast their ballots in Chicago’s mayoral race, which is expected to go to a runoff.

Unless one candidate gets more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two finishers will move on to compete in a runoff on April 4. There are serious doubts that embattled incumbent Mayor Lori Lightfoot will be able to keep her seat, thanks in large part to her struggle to get crime under control.

In 2019, Lightfoot won in a runoff election with more than 73 percent of the vote, becoming the first black woman to lead Chicago. But after her four years in office, things are looking bleak.

Crime is a central issue in the race, as residents are fed up with high crime rates. Alfie Watt, a business owner, told NewsNation’s Chicago affiliate she’s taking her business elsewhere after being shot at.

“When will the crime stop? When will it stop? You can’t do anything in the city of Chicago without something bad happening. You know it’s horrible. And I’m taking my business outside of Chicago. It’s not worth it,” Watt said.

Recent polls show voters are not enthusiastic about a second Lightfoot term. Last week, polling from independent firm M3 Strategies showed Lightfoot finishing third, behind former Chicago public schools CEO Paul Vallas, who has been endorsed by the city’s Fraternal Order of Police, and Cook County Commissioner Brandon Johnson.

However, a poll from 1983 Labs showed Lightfoot finishing in second place, which would mean she’d go to the April 4 runoff election. Both polls show the mayor winning about 18 percent of the vote.

The mayoral race has been consumed by the city’s crime problem, which continues to make headlines across the country, leading most candidates to make crime their top priority.

While the city saw nearly 110 fewer murders last year as compared to 2021, it was the only year in Lightfoot’s tenure that murder rates went down instead of up.

While some violent crime rates dropped in Chicago in 2022, since 2019 several are on the rise. Murder is up 39 percent, robberies up 13 percent and motor vehicle theft up 139 percent.

As crime has gone up, Lightfoot’s reputation with the city’s police has taken a serious hit. Police are quitting the force faster than the city can replace them. There are currently just under 11,850 police officers, an 11 percent drop from 2018. One retired Chicago Police Department lieutenant said Lightfoot’s crime policies are a big reason why.

“They’re not leaving law enforcement; they’re leaving Chicago law enforcement … that tells me that something’s going on here that’s not working. I can tell you it’s a toxic work environment. Absolutely. 100 percent,” John Garrido said.

Lightfoot has remained firm that her approach is the right way forward for Chicago.

“While we have not reached the finish line – and my goal is obviously to be the safest big city in the country – we are definitely bending the curve,” she said,

While Lightfoot is remaining optimistic about her chances and the city’s crime rate, Paul Vallas isn’t slowing down his attacks. Vallas is leading the field in most polls, and last week he introduced a website asking Chicagoans to share how they’ve personally been impacted by crime.

Beyond crime, Lightfoot has also been embroiled in controversy in other areas. She came under fire last month after her deputy campaign manager reached out to several Chicago public school teachers via their work email and asked them to get students to volunteer for the mayor’s reelection campaign, promising class credit if the students participated.

Monday, the Daily Mail reported unnamed sources who said inmates at the Cook County jail were being pressured by guards to illegally cast ballots in today’s election, despite not being registered to vote in the city. However, a spokesman for the Cook County Sheriff’s Office denied those claims.