Decision Desk ‘24 Blake Burman’s Campaign View

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NewsNation Chief Washington Correspondent and The Hill on NewsNation moderator Blake Burman shares his political reporting and campaign viewpoints leading into the 2024 election.

We normally try to focus on what could come next, but something happened in Alabama last week that got my attention and made me think. I thought you’d find this anecdote interesting:

I was speaking with a senior aide to one of the GOP presidential candidates, and I asked how things were going. I’m not a psychologist, or remotely close to it, but I could tell this person was a bit exhausted from the grind. We started talking about the sprint to Iowa, and the senior aide said to me, “Imagine planning a wedding every single day for 60 straight days.”

Think about that! A wedding every day for two straight months! That’s how the senior aide was compartmentalizing the challenge ahead. I often say on air that covering presidential campaigns are tough, yet alone actually running one. But that quote made me think just how difficult the task ahead is for those fighting for their political futures.

A reminder, if you know anyone who would find this newsletter interesting, forward to them and they can subscribe here. Now, on to the race…

Is the GOP Race Over?

Asking if the race is over would normally be a crazy question to toss out in December, but a poll this week from the Des Moines Register, the gold standard of Iowa polls, shows Donald Trump at 51%. That puts him up 32 and 35 points over Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis respectively.

Ford O’Connell, a former Trump campaign surrogate, said on our show “The Hill” on NewsNation, “It’s pretty much game, set match.” O’Connell adding that the wild card remains the fact that Iowa’s voting system is a caucus. He explains what it could mean for the donor class as well.

Republican candidate Chris Christie, who is deploying a New Hampshire strategy, also joined us the other day. He explained why he decided to defend fellow candidate Nikki Haley on stage from attacks by Vivek Ramaswamy at our NewsNation debate.

“Nikki’s been a friend of mine, as I said, last night, for over a dozen years. But let me be really clear, I don’t think she should be president of the United States. And I intend to beat her both here in New Hampshire, and other places around the country. But it doesn’t mean that we should be taking personal shots at her intellect,” Christie told us.

By the way, tonight on “The Hill” on NewsNation, Chris Stirewalt unveils his latest “Pulse of the People” segment, where he asks members of an Iowa focus group how they are currently feeling. You can watch a preview here, and join us tonight at 5p ET:

More Than Just Dodgers Blue?

The Wall Street Journal has an interesting take on how the Los Angeles Dodgers have the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to partially thank for landing Shohei Ohtani, who just agreed to a record-breaking 10 year, $700 million contract. Hint: Think interest rates and annuities. Ohtani will only be paid $2 million annually for the first 10 years, with the rest paid out in the following decade.

Why would Ohtani do that? One reason is because he could then move from California to a low (or no) income tax state and avoid a massive tax bill. So is this a tax-the-rich workaround? Or does it highlight the difference between tax policies in red and blue states? Yes, there’s obviously a baseball angle to all this, but this historic deal also highlights tax policy in this country. We’ll discuss it tonight on the show.

Happenings on The Hill

Senator Roger Marshall, R-Kan., succinctly laid out how Republicans view a comprehensive package, possibly north of $100 billion, that would send aid to Ukraine and Israel, along with providing money for the southern border here at home. “At the end of the day, Republicans aren’t budging until we secure the border. That’s the question that all America is asking Joe Biden right now: ‘Why do Republicans have to beg Joe Biden to secure the border?’ That’s part of his job,” Marshall told us. During a news conference at the White House on Tuesday alongside the Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President Biden urged Congress to swiftly approve a new aid package for Ukraine.

Is this the best idea yet? Rep Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., hosted a 16-minute Christmas party at his Capitol office. The party last year was 15 minutes, but he bumped it up a bit this year, saying 16 minutes is “all you really need.”

There is a fight up on Capitol HIll involving what kind of milk should be served in our schools. Might 2% and whole milk work their way back into public schools? We plan on showing you some of the exchange on the House floor tonight.