Republicans are looking to avoid a disaster in the Nebraska Senate race amid signs that an independent candidate could be giving incumbent Sen. Deb Fischer (R) a run for her money.

Independent Senate candidate and political newcomer Dan Osborn is challenging Fischer for her seat, betting Nebraskans are hungry for a nonpartisan senator in a state former President Trump won by close to 20 points in 2020.

Despite Nebraska’s reliably red political leanings, the dynamics of the race have shifted in recent weeks: Republican groups have started spending in the race, and the nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report last week shifted the race one step away from Fischer.

“As a pragmatist and a realist, generally in politics, you don’t spend money if you’re not worried or at least interested in making sure that you protect your seat,” said Brent Comstock, a consultant in the Cornhusker State who primarily works with Democrats.

Osborn is “appealing to the average moderate Nebraskan who realizes that one, the political parties are challenging, and two, that people want to elect someone who stands up for their rights and not for a party boss,” Comstock added, while noting the clear Republican registration edge in the state.

Osborn, who has leaned into his background as a steamfitter who led a major strike against Kellogg’s in 2021 in Omaha, has started to pick up traction in the Nebraska Senate race.

Outside groups Retire Career Politicians PAC and Nebraska Railroaders for Public Safety have poured money into the race in support of Osborn, including at least $3.2 million from the Retire Career Politicians PAC alone, according to AdImpact. Both groups have received sizable contributions from the liberal-leaning dark money group Sixteen Thirty Fund.

Osborn himself has been on the air, too. One of his campaign ads shows him next to an actor who’s portraying Fischer, who’s wearing a NASCAR-like jacket with patches that seek to show corporate interests who have given money to her.

“The U.S. Senate is a country club full of millionaires controlled by billionaires,” Osborn told The Hill in a statement. “Nebraskans know we need change. That’s why I’m not a member of either party and it’s why I’m not taking a dime of corporate PAC money — because I refuse to be controlled by any party boss or special interest.”

“Instead, we’re uniting Democrats, Republicans and Independents to send a working person to Washington who will finally stand up for regular people.”

Independent polling has largely been scarce in the Senate race, but Cook Political Report’s Jessica Taylor noted last week that internal polling released by Osborn’s campaign showed the independent ahead of Fischer by 1 percentage point.

Still, she said “we remain very skeptical about Osborn’s path to 50%.”

The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) — the Senate GOP’s campaign arm — and the conservative super PAC Heartland Resurgence have started to pour in money of their own, painting Osborn “as a Democrat in disguise” and tying him to progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.).

“The NRSC’s number one priority is making sure we reelect all of our incumbent senators. Dan Osborn has no chance of winning this race because he is embroiled in scandal after scandal,” Philip Letsou, a spokesperson for the NRSC, told The Hill in a statement. He also pointed out that Osborn lauded Sanders, and he alluded to a New York Post article in which Osborn reportedly called Fischer’s employees and campaign staff “a bunch of Hitler Youth frat boys,” among other details.

Osborn acknowledged the remarks about Fischer’s team were “harsh” in a statement to the Post, saying he wished he could retract the statements. “I served in the Navy and sometimes I still talk like [a] sailor,” he told the publication. “I’m not a career politician, I talk like a regular guy because I am a regular guy.”

“I have been clear that I won’t bend the knee to the party bosses or special interests, so Deb Fischer and her donors are coming after me with ridiculous lies,” the Osborn campaign said in a statement to The Hill. “Nebraskans see right through this, and that’s why polling shows we’re ahead in this race and we’re going to win in November.”

The Osborn campaign also said the 49-year-old “built a huge outpouring of support from across the political spectrum” during the Kellogg’s strike in 2021, noting a letter issued by then-Gov. Pete Ricketts (R) encouraging Kellogg’s to return to the negotiating table.

GOP media strategist Ryan Horn said while he found Osborn’s advertising more effective than Fischer’s, the independent faces steep odds in a statewide Senate race.

“I look at these two ad campaigns, and I would say, if they were running for Nebraska-2 or for mayor of Omaha, I’d say she’s going to have a tough fight, but she’s not,” Horn said, referring to the state’s 2nd Congressional District, where both parties are competitive. 

“They’re running statewide, right?” Horn said. “And the rest of her ad campaign is, ‘I was endorsed by Donald Trump, and I’m a Republican.’”

Osborn would certainly need to defy political gravity in GOP-friendly terrain. Independents as of late have also historically struggled to gain traction in Senate bids, the latest example of which came from Utah in 2022, when independent Evan McMullin lost to Sen. Mike Lee (R).

“Senator Fischer has campaigned hard for two years, earning the endorsement of 93 bipartisan committee chairs, dozens of unions and trade groups, and over 1000 community leaders across the state,” the Fischer campaign told The Hill in a statement. “She’s grateful for the support of Nebraskans, as well as her friends and colleagues in the Senate — they all know well what’s at stake. Another Kamala Harris supporter in the Senate puts the filibuster at even greater risk and places American prosperity and security in jeopardy.”

Other Republicans, too, doubt Fischer is any danger politically and suggest the spending pouring into the state is forcing the GOP to respect in return.

“I think it reflects the fact that there is so much more to be known about Dan Osborn than what’s in the record,” said J.L. Spray, a former Republican National Committee committeeman from Nebraska and Fischer campaign alum who’s not involved in her reelection bid.

“Osborn didn’t go through any traditional nominating process. He isn’t known to the voters at all, and his introductory pieces started with attack pieces that require not only a response, but an introduction to him.”

Yet Democrats believe there’s reason for optimism. Nebraska state Sen. Carol Blood (D), who represents a Republican-leaning district and is running for House against incumbent Rep. Mike Flood (R), acknowledges that while she might be a “unicorn,” politics can sometimes transcend party lines.

“The point is that there are people who are willing to accept others from no party, another party, who they’ll agree with most of the time and maybe not all the time, but there’s a lot more common ground than there isn’t,” Blood said.