(NewsNation) — New data shows Republican gains made during the 2022 midterm election were the result of voter turnout, rather than voters switching parties.
Pew Research Center analyzed data from the midterm election and the results could have big impacts on both parties as they prepare for the 2024 presidential race.
The data could be good news for Republicans, who are seeing former President Donald Trump once again emerge as the party’s front-runner in the primaries. It might be less heartening for Democrats, who pointed to the failure of a predicted “red wave” in the midterms as a sign voters were turning away from the party of Trump.
In areas where Republicans did see gains in the midterm, Pew found it was the result of voter turnout rather than disgruntled Democrats switching sides. When compared to the 2018 midterm election, both parties saw very few voters changing their allegiance.
That’s critical because even a small percentage of defectors can make a big difference in elections when the country remains so polarized. Pew did find some exceptions to the trend, with rural voters and white voters without college degrees more likely to switch parties from Democratic to Republican.
Data showed Republican gains came largely because those voters were the ones showing up to the polls. Democrats saw a bigger number of voters who cast a ballot in 2018 but failed to do so in 2022.
Republicans, on the other hand, saw more new voters show up in 2022 who didn’t vote in the previous midterm election. The party also continued to do well with those 50 and older, as well as with white evangelical Protestants, a group 2024 candidates are already courting.
Democrats, meanwhile, performed better with voters younger than 30 and Black voters. Hispanic voters also tended to lean Democratic but by smaller margins than in previous elections, indicating some were shifting to the Republican Party.