CAROLINE COUNTY, Va. (NewsNation) — When you’ve been farming as long as Lynwood Broaddus has, knowing how to get the most out of your crops is down to a science. It’s a process that’s been perfected through years of training with help from highly advanced machines.

But even the best farmers have a list of things they can’t control and due to the war in Ukraine, that list is growing.

“You can’t plan on the weather. Well, it’s gotten even more so, you kind of can’t plan on the fertilizer either,” said Broaddus, a Virginia farmer whose family has been working the fields for generations.

Thousands of miles away from the soy, corn and wheat farm in eastern Virginia’s Caroline County, the battle for Ukraine continues and that could be a problem for the world’s fertilizer supply.

Russia and Belarus produce nearly 40% of the world’s supply of potash, a potassium-rich mineral and a key ingredient in fertilizer. It’s something Broaddus said he uses regularly.

When the war began, potash exports all but stopped and since this time last year fertilizer prices are up nearly 200% across the country, according to the Virginia Farm Bureau.

It’s a trend that has many concerned that the cost of food could continue to rise at a time when Americans are already feeling pain at the supermarket from inflation. Since February 2021, prices at the grocery store have risen 8.6%.

Although the Biden administration tried to spare commodities markets from the worst of the economic sanctions, restrictions on Russian banks have made companies weary of doing business with Russian firms.

Some farmers who can’t afford the rise in prices are choosing to forgo fertilizer altogether, which could result in a much lower yield. That’s a problem that can compound if left unaddressed.

“If you don’t put a fertilizer this year and you don’t put that next year, sooner or later, you’re going to have to make that up,” said Broaddus.

In addition to the rise in fertilizer prices, the war has also increased the price of wheat. Russia and Ukraine account for nearly one-third of global wheat and barley exports. It’s why the region is often referred to as one of the “breadbaskets of the world.”

Experts say countries in the Middle East and North Africa are especially vulnerable to wheat shortages in Europe and fear the ongoing crisis could lead to more food insecurity.

Egyptians “rely on Russia and Ukraine to meet 85% of their wheat needs,” said Caitlin Welsh, director of the Global Food Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

According to the UN, there are 26 countries that rely on Russia and Ukraine to meet at least half of their wheat import needs. Any disruption in the supply, or a sharp rise in prices, could devastate the food supply in those nations.

Even places as far away as Indonesia, where Ukraine was the second-largest wheat supplier last year, could be affected.

Welsh pointed out that the rising energy prices brought on by the war in Ukraine are also bad for food prices, as the cost of transporting food and operating machinery goes up.

As for the farmers themselves, Broaddus is cautiously optimistic. Despite the multitude of factors working against him, he continues to believe in the grit of the American farmer and said his biggest concern is the human toll of war.

“I have confidence in the American farmer as to how they will deal with it. One way or another we will get through it,” he said.