Why are US-Mexico border encounters down?

Southern border crossings have declined since Title 42 expired
Both Mexico and the U.S. are working to discourage unauthorized crossings
It's too early to know whether border encounters will climb again

Updated: May 25, 2023 / 11:40 AM CDT

EL PASO, TEXAS – MAY 13: Honduran migrants walk along the U.S. side of the Rio Grande and past an emptied-out migrant camp after crossing over from Mexico on May 13, 2023 to El Paso, Texas. After a big surge the week before, the number of new arrivals has dropped since the end of the U.S. Title 42 immigration policy. (Photo by John Moore/Getty Images)

(NewsNation) — Proactive messaging and a cautious attitude among migrants may account for a drop in border crossings in recent weeks, according to one analyst who spoke with NewsNation.

That’s despite the surge of crossings some agencies predicted would happen when Title 42 expired.

Whether crossings remain at current levels remains to be seen.

Migrants coming from Mexico could be waiting to see how others fare before making the trip themselves, said Julia Gelatt, a senior policy analyst at the Migration Policy Institute. It’s also possible many people made a concerted effort to cross while Title 42 was still in effect, she said.

“The U.S. government tried really hard to send the message that the border wouldn’t be open after the end of Title 42,” Gelatt said. “It seems like some migrants really heard that message and were trying to get into the U.S. before the end of Title 42.”

The policy, which expired on May 11, allowed border officials to turn away migrants for health reasons during the height of the coronavirus pandemic. In its wake, members of U.S. Customs and Border Patrol feared the number of crossings would grow unmanageable.

Three days after the rule expired, however, border crossings were down 50%, U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas told CNN’s “State of the Union.” Numbers have so far managed to remain low. The day after Title 42’s end, CBP reported just fewer than 6,300 apprehensions. The average number of CBP apprehensions during the May 20-21 weekend was about 2,900, according to U.S. Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz.

“There were a whole host of preparations that were made for the end of Title 42, including ramping up processing capabilities, rolling out new policies, and then also working with governments in the region, which might be another factor,” Gelatt said.

Practices on Mexico’s side of the border have varied, but the country seems to be in a period of heavier enforcement, Gelatt said.

Last week, CBP tweeted photos of migrants boarding a bus and an airplane that would transport them farther from the border in Mexico.

“There are long-term consequences to entering the US w/out authorization under Title 8, including removal from the US, including bars to future immigration benefits,” the agency tweeted.

If migrants are waiting to see how crossings are being handled without Title 42 in place, encounters could start to rise again once the trip seems worth the potential risk. For many, it always will be worth it, especially for those escaping poverty-stricken and otherwise unsustainable conditions in their home countries, Gelatt said.

“The push factors driving people from their countries are really overwhelming,” Gelatt said. “So no matter what U.S. policies are, people are fleeing Venezuela and Nicaragua and Cuba and Haiti for very good reasons and conditions. They’re untenable for many people.”