Rep. Ilhan Omar (Minn.), one of the most controversial figures in the Democratic Party, faces a rematch Tuesday night against a challenger who nearly ousted her in a primary last cycle.

But this year, Omar says she’s prepared, and observers expect her to glide to victory in Minnesota’s 5th Congressional District primary against establishment Democrat Don Samuels.

The race underscores the radically different situations “squad” members find themselves in as they work to keep their seats against a flood of funding from pro-Israel groups.

“Despite last-ditch efforts by right-wing interests and Trump donors to boost her opponent, the people of MN-05 know Ilhan Omar is the representation they deserve to have in Congress,” said Usamah Andrabi, communications director for Justice Democrats, who is backing Omar against the former Minneapolis city councilor. 

Running for a fourth term, Omar has been one of the most divisive members of Congress since she was first elected in 2018. A Muslim American of Somali descent, she’s been a reliably staunch critic of the Israeli government on Capitol Hill, a stance that has alienated her from many Democrats and necessitated more security for her after the Oct. 7 attack by Hamas. 

To her detractors, Omar’s sharp position on Israel has defined much of her public persona and has made her a target of leaders, donors and activists who see her as problematic when intolerance against Jewish Americans is on the rise. Many moderates consider Omar the most fringe member of the left, and in 2022, she barely scraped by in her primary, defeating Samuels by less than 3,000 votes. 

Omar is looking less vulnerable this year. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), the dominant force against progressive incumbents, chose to not get involved in her race this time, a spokesperson for the group confirmed to The Hill on Monday.  

Progressives see that as a sign of Omar’s durability.

“Where AIPAC is not spending millions against progressives, they are winning by significant margins,” said Denae Ávila-Dickson, communications manager for the Sunrise Movement, whose grassroots coalition is supporting Omar.  

The race, she said, “also demonstrates that AIPAC knows that a representative who has had the opportunity to deepen relationships in their community after being in Congress for several years will be hard to beat.”

Indeed, nonpartisan election trackers don’t expect the Tuesday race to be as competitive as Reps. Cori Bush’s (D-Mo.) or Jamaal Bowman’s (D-N.Y.) primaries. Those two incumbents failed to overcome the money AIPAC and other pro-Israel groups poured into their districts. They also predict an easier path for Omar compared to her narrow victory against Samuels in 2022.

Progressives reeling from two highly visible losses are hoping that the odds remain in Omar’s favor. They view her perspective as a Black, progressive Muslim woman as critical as the party looks to maintain its standing heading into the fall. 

“They love her,” said one progressive strategist supporting Omar’s reelection about voters in her district.

The strategist, who has worked on national presidential and down ballot campaigns, said that beyond the distinct geographic blueprints of each district, “message discipline from candidates” is what can move the needle in tough contests where progressives are defending their seats. Omar, the source suggested, has a well-defined brand that resonates with voters in the hugely Democratic region.

“I love Bowman and Bush, but they made a lot of unforced errors,” the strategist added.

Outside fundraising against liberals has been astonishingly high this cycle, but Omar is a bit of an outlier. She has the upper hand financially, reportedly bringing in $1.6 million in the fourth quarter, a massive haul from small dollar donations as spending on House races continues to break records. In total, she has reportedly brought in about $6.2 million, according to finance records.

Omar, Andrabi said, “has embodied what it looks like when we elect leaders who put their communities’ needs over the interests of billionaire megadonors.”

While the lack of coordination among rivals has allowed Omar to run relatively easily, some critics still believe it’s worthwhile to try one last time to defeat her, especially given that she only won by roughly 2 percentage points last cycle. The Intercept reported on late movements by several wealthy donors, including in GOP circles, to spend as much as they can where they had been sitting out. 

“It is shameful that my opponent is actively courting Republican votes and desperately seeking funding from AIPAC,” Omar wrote on the social platform X about the revelations, denouncing Samuels’ “support from vile MAGA Republicans.” 

The district’s unique open primary setup has also prompted some right-wing figures to get involved. While Omar and Samuels are competing in a Democratic primary, the rules allow voters from either party to cast ballots, meaning Republican voters can theoretically jump in and potentially throw off the results. The Democratic nominee is overwhelmingly likely to win in the general election, further complicating the dynamic.  

Omar’s most prominent backers in Congress, including Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.) and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), have sought to boost support for her in the contest’s closing days, including with a rally by Sanders in Minneapolis last week. The district boasts a young immigrant population, including many residents from sub-Saharan Africa. Voters have historically shown support for a diverse range of Democrats throughout the state, including most recently the governor, Tim Walz, who is now Vice President Harris’s running mate.

Walz has not waded into Omar’s race despite the fresh attention on Minnesota on the national stage. Omar applauded him as Harris’s running mate when she announced her decision earlier this month. 

In addition to the cash advantage, polling, while infrequent, shows Omar with the upper hand. A survey taken by Lake Research Partners, which has previously done polling for the Biden campaign, revealed that Omar is ahead of Samuels by wide margins. The late July poll shows Omar earning 60 percent support from like voters compared to Samuels’s 33 percent. 

“I just like her. I don’t always agree with her or her style,” said a Democratic consultant who works with Black and other non-white candidates running for office. 

“Her story is a good one and she doesn’t rub me the wrong way,” said the strategist.