(NewsNation) — Spring has ushered in the severe weather season, beginning in the nation’s heartland, with conditions ripe for thunderstorms and tornadoes, according to AccuWeather forecasts.
Meteorologists predict 1,250 to 1,375 tornadoes in the United States this year, surpassing the historical average of 1,225 but still fewer than 2023 recorded.
Already, severe storms with suspected tornadoes have torn through several central states, leveling homes and causing damage in parts of Ohio, Kentucky, Indiana, Arkansas, Illinois and Missouri.
This week, at least three people were killed in the Indian Lake area of Ohio’s Logan County, and a suspected tornado that ripped through Winchester, Indiana, injured nearly 40 people.
More severe weather is expected throughout Friday for parts of the south, including the potential for damaging winds and isolated tornadoes, according to the National Weather Service.
Looking ahead, El Niño conditions that drenched areas like Seattle and Los Angeles could break down as water temperatures near the equator begin to cool and tornadoes take hold in the area encompassing Kansas and Oklahoma.
Most tornadoes in 2023 touched down outside the traditional tornado region, but that’s expected to change this year, according to an AccuWeather report.
“We think the severe weather will shift back into classic Tornado Alley — Oklahoma, Northwest Texas, Kansas, up into parts of Iowa,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bob Smerbeck said. “But during that transition time, there will be a phase where it gets up pretty far north.”
Tornado Alley may see fewer tornadoes than the historical average between March and April before damaging winds and hail develop from April to May, according to AccuWeather predictions.
Meanwhile, spring could arrive early in the Midwest and northern Plains, where dry spells and the potential for drought could keep severe weather at bay until later in the season.
Parts of Canada warmed up quickly last year, helping spark wildfires in central and eastern parts of the country, sending smoke through the United States’ Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions.
“We do expect at least some early heat to develop or persist across the northern U.S., perhaps into southern Canada,” Smerbeck said. “So we’ll be watching those locations for potentially some wildfires.”
Meteorologists are still keeping an eye on the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, however, where warming temperatures and “somewhat of a snowless winter” could produce the dry, warm conditions that create wildfires, he said.
Unseasonable warmth and dry conditions may similarly produce a greater risk of wildfires in California.
As for summer heat, the hottest temperatures in August will develop in the northern half of the country, while below-average temperatures are possible in the Southern U.S.
“It’s gonna be interesting to see how things heat up this spring going into summer,” Smerbeck said. “We just have to watch. We’ve seen some of the little heat waves develop across some of the higher latitudes.”
The northern U.S., including the Rockies and Great Lakes, could also see above-average precipitation, while slightly below-average precipitation is possible in the south.
“We’ve got to watch the East Coast for flooding,” Smerbeck said. “It’s been very wet this winter. … When you get into the warm season, you get into the thunderstorms that can help bring heavy amounts of rain in a short period of time.”
Flooding has caused major damage in recent years, ravaging Kentucky in the summer of 2022. The conditions cause long-lasting damage, displacing hundreds and killing more than two dozen people.
The Federal Emergency Management Agency approved more than $80 million in relief for Kentucky flood victims, some of whom were still displaced in early 2024.
